A Systematic Trader's Journal

Here is a short USD trading outlook and a short entertaining video for your enjoyment towards the close on Friday trading. Looking forward to see you guys here again this next Monday. Have a great weekend ahead! The financial markets have a lot to digest today as they attempt to assess the implications of the USD 500B bailout plan for the US financial system, where the assumption is that, this program could greatly improve liquidity and allow affected firms to salvage their problematic assets, and put an end to scares/panics made by the market on these big firms. Therefore, because of this, the U.S Treasury markets gain another USD500B of new debt. As I understand that many investors now may feel that the current strain is far from over, I still urge everyone to observe equities closely, if you remember yesterday closely, you would understand that the net change of the indices at the end of the day is more important than its change before the open. I would believe that the markets may ...

If the SEC temporarily bans short selling, it will actually INCREASE the cost to banks of raising new capital, and the market's floor might be removed. - "The Securities and Exchange Commission took its most aggressive assault against bearish stock bets by stating its intention to issue a temporary ban on short-selling," writes the WSJ. "SEC Chairman Christopher Cox briefed Congress late Thursday of the agency's intention to take the extraordinary step of interfering with the market's regular functioning." - This move will affect hedge funds that use short positions to hedge investment risk during a rights issue or placing. If they're not able to provide liquidity during a rights issue, the costs to banks of raising new capital will increase.  - Shorts provide a floor, buying (i.e. covering shorts) when there is no one left to buy. If you can't short, the only way to reduce your risk is to sell, which may exaggerate downside pressure in the event...

I hope this video is an enlightening moment for some of us. This video does contain some vulgarities and obscene languages, so please watch only if you can accept the language. Stock Futures Trader losses it all and flips out - Watch more free videos

*DJ Philadelphia Fed Sep Business Index 3.8 Vs Aug -12.7  *DJ Philadelphia Fed Sep Price Paid 31.5 Vs Aug 57.5  *DJ US Conference Board: Aug Leading Index -0.5% *DJ US Jobless Claims +10K To 455K In Sep 13 Wk; Survey -10K  *DJ US Sep 6 Week Continuing Claims -55K to 3,478,000  MS and Wachovia about to start serious and advanced merger talks - CNBC European power and gas traders have lost confidence in US investment bank Morgan Stanley and are shying away from engaging in deals with the Wall Street major, market sources told Platts on Thursday. Morgan Stanley is the one of two remaining independent Wall Street investment banks, next to Goldman Sachs, after the fire-sales of banks Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch and the collapse of Lehman Brothers.  Swiss National Bank leaves target range for the three-month Libor unchanged at 2.25–3.25% Next time someone asks "what good a would a Fed rate cut do?" the right answer is "what harm would it do if they do not?" and pull ou...

Here are some details of the severe repercussions should AIG fall, take this to reference on the impact of the LEH collapse: Sept 17 (Reuters) - (The following statement was released by the ratings agency) Sept 17 - Moody's Investors Service announced today that is has placed its ratings of certain credit derivative transactions listed below (the "Transactions") that have exposure to Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. ("LBHI") and certain UK Lehman companies, including Lehman Brothers International (Europe) ("LB-UK" and collectively with LBHI, the "LBHI Entities"), on watch for possible downgrade. Additionally, certain other Transactions were downgraded and left under review for further possible downgrade. Moody's explained that its rating action is based upon LBHI seeking protection under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code and LB-UK being placed into administration, a procedure governed by the Insolvency Act of 1986, on September 15, 2008...

Hi all, I publish some of my posts at Articles Base as well, so if you are keen to view them in another environment, feel free to view the links below: Trading Approach:   http://www.articlesbase.com/day-trading-articles/a-trading-approach-563941.html Volatility in the Credit Market:  http://www.articlesbase.com/investing-articles/volatility-in-the-credit-market-can-we-still-trust-banks-562950.html Cheers

Seems like we can avoid another scene like that in AIA Singapore again.  No rate cut was made. The Federal Reserve is readying a loan of $85B to AIG, in exchange for an 80% stake in the insurer. Barclays is buying some of Lehman's assets, where the US bankruptcy judge approves "automatic stay" status for JP Morgan to continue providing trade-clearing advances to Lehman's broker-dealer unit. WAMU is also up 16% due to talks of fresh interest from a large institution.  Thus, has all these events salvaged the turbulence in Asia, and create a positive spur of sentiment for the international markets? Let's take a quick snapshot in early Asia and US closing markets in the morning. All Ordinaries  Australia 4,843.4 8:28AM SGT  43.600 (0.91%) Nikkei 225 Japan 11,830.34 8:28AM SGT     220.62 (1.90%) KOSPI  Korea 1,425.59 8:48 AM SGT   37.84 (2.73%) S&P 500 US 1,213.59 20.89 (1.75%) DJIA 11,059.02  141.51 (1.30%) Nasdaq 100 1,724.08   18.62...

Today has also been one very interesting day for the financial markets.  With time running out for AIG's vault, it seems like all eyes are looking at the Fed to provide a bridging loan to lend the company a helping hand. Additionally, if rumours are right, WAMU may soon get off the radar screen if JPM has interest in them. Looking at the market on the macro level, we have witnessed the more than $600B in share value that got worthless or disappeared in the financial and banking sector, and historically, equity markets on average drops 26% during a recession, where now S&P 500 has already reached 23%. In addition, current dividend yield of some stocks have begun to surpass yields from Treasury Bills products. One more evidence is taken from Thomas J. Lee, JPM Chief US Equity Strategist in New York, net cash balances in margin accounts at NYSE member firms are highest in at least 50 years, citing $932B has poured into money fund since Aug 2007. So do you think this could be a pos...

Due to some technical error, I am posting this events in GMT time manually.   Date Time $€£¥ Event Per. Prev. Fore. Act. Imp. 09/16 12:30 CAD Manufacturing Shipments m/m 2.1% 1.0% - 12:30 USD Core CPI m/m 0.3% 0.2% - 12:30 USD CPI 0.8% 0.0% - 13:00 USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 53.4B 55.0B - 14:00 USD Treasury Sec Paulson Speaks * * * 15:00 CHF Gov Board Member Hildebrand Speaks * * * 17:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index 16 17 - 17:30 USD Treasury Sec Paulson Speaks * * * 18:15 USD FOMC Statement * * * 18:15 USD Federal Funds Rate 2.00% 2.00% -

Hi guys, I will keep this brief. The link below will bring you to the list of creditors involved with the Lehman's Bankruptcy Filing. Click Here:  Lehman's Filing

Today's events have indeed been a thrilling experience experience for the international markets. As I am writing this, the China Central Banks has just cut its key interest rate again by 27 basis points to spur growth, Lehman (est. 1844) has filed for Chapter 11 (Bankruptcy) , there are rounds of ECB having an emergency rate cut, UBS sneaking in to declare another $5B of writedowns, AIG seeking help from the Fed with a request of a $40B bridge loan after rejecting an offer by Flower to prevent themselves from joining the slaughterhouse where their CDs are currently gapping outwards, and it seems that the only few pieces of good news are probably that Merril had a merger with BOA, as well as a consortium of global banks have put together a $70B fund to facilitate liduidity and an orderly resolution between Lehman and their counterparties. ECB also joined in with $30B to curb liquidity woes as well.  In my opinion, it seems like an obvious trend that all Fed Governors are challenged ...