A Systematic Trader's Journal

Took some time to watch the testimony earlier. It started with some intensity and it ended with a softer and more understanding tone towards the end of the testimony. Chairman Bernanke expressed his anger towards AIG, and explained that AIG's investment operations were operating like a hedge fund, and because of such unmanaged risk that were taken by them, where it also went through the regulatory loopholes, thus causing the worries. If AIG is to fail now, the effect may be catastrophic and detrimental to the current financial woes of the economy. The Fed did really think and consider about the consumers of such insurance products who had given premiums to the insurer, and the possible effect if AIG is to fail, there will be another vacuum that could cost adverse effects in the health care system as well. One of the Senator did bring up to Bernanke's attention to ask if AIG was labeled as a 'zombie institution'. I thought that was a pretty interesting one, but Bernanke ...

Very good insights shown by Nouriel Roubini on why nationalizing banks is a great idea and a view of where the current state of global economies may be. From the series of few videos that were posted the last few days, may it be from Jim Rogers, Soros or Roubini, everyone seems to have one common opinion, that is growth for the next decade will not be as strong as the past few recoveries that we had experienced from the last 6 decades of recoveries. With the U.S continuing to work to repair their economy, both on budget and trade, over the next few years, the world may have to go through a paradigm shift, as the largest consumer of goods and services globally, goes through a major overhaul. The recent economic and trade figures could tell very clearly, as specified by Roubini in this. Enjoy this video..

Hi mates, If you have 30min of spare time to watch this video, I urge you to take some time and view this. In my opinion, it will give you a good picture of what may be the next worry, after the US economy has generally been stabilised. Enjoy...

Japan is obviously in panic at this stage, as Nikkei extends decline to close at 7162.90 -6.36% from the previous close, as I am writing this. The Nikkei fell to new lows since 1989, at 38900ish, and still making new lows today. Do you think we could still see it happen in the next decade? Although Japanese banks have been relatively unharmed by the credit crisis, but a dip in the equity prices of Japan has caused a relative damage to their balance sheets.  Over the weekend, China, Japan and Korea agreed to act together any day if and when it is needed, where Japan has a free hand on Yen with the support of China.  Hong Kong on the other hand, as I am writing, is down by 12.16% at 11,083.63 -1534.75. I believe the double whammy may have been accompanied with Li Ka Shing's comment last week, in a declaration that Hutchison Whampoa will not move forward with further acquisition until June 2009, as he has always been a good indicator to many people in Asia. Let's look at a series ...

Here are some details of the severe repercussions should AIG fall, take this to reference on the impact of the LEH collapse: Sept 17 (Reuters) - (The following statement was released by the ratings agency) Sept 17 - Moody's Investors Service announced today that is has placed its ratings of certain credit derivative transactions listed below (the "Transactions") that have exposure to Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. ("LBHI") and certain UK Lehman companies, including Lehman Brothers International (Europe) ("LB-UK" and collectively with LBHI, the "LBHI Entities"), on watch for possible downgrade. Additionally, certain other Transactions were downgraded and left under review for further possible downgrade. Moody's explained that its rating action is based upon LBHI seeking protection under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code and LB-UK being placed into administration, a procedure governed by the Insolvency Act of 1986, on September 15, 2008...

Seems like we can avoid another scene like that in AIA Singapore again.  No rate cut was made. The Federal Reserve is readying a loan of $85B to AIG, in exchange for an 80% stake in the insurer. Barclays is buying some of Lehman's assets, where the US bankruptcy judge approves "automatic stay" status for JP Morgan to continue providing trade-clearing advances to Lehman's broker-dealer unit. WAMU is also up 16% due to talks of fresh interest from a large institution.  Thus, has all these events salvaged the turbulence in Asia, and create a positive spur of sentiment for the international markets? Let's take a quick snapshot in early Asia and US closing markets in the morning. All Ordinaries  Australia 4,843.4 8:28AM SGT  43.600 (0.91%) Nikkei 225 Japan 11,830.34 8:28AM SGT     220.62 (1.90%) KOSPI  Korea 1,425.59 8:48 AM SGT   37.84 (2.73%) S&P 500 US 1,213.59 20.89 (1.75%) DJIA 11,059.02  141.51 (1.30%) Nasdaq 100 1,724.08   18.62...