A Systematic Trader's Journal

AIG is today's biggest news, as they list which institutions were beneficiaries of the US bailout fund and their request to pay employees $165 million on bonuses and trading partners. Click here for details.  Additionally to AIG, here is a document that displays AIG's biggest counterparties on their CDS. A.I.G.'s Biggest Counterparties Publish at Scribd or explore others: Government Business & Legal american internation A.I.G.

Paulson cannot be allowed a blank cheque By George Soros  Published: September 24 2008 20:28 - Last updated: September 24 2008 20:28 Hank Paulson’s $700bn rescue package has run into difficulty on Capitol Hill. Rightly so: it was ill-conceived. Congress would be abdicating its responsibility if it gave the Treasury secretary a blank cheque. The bill submitted to Congress even had language in it that would exempt the secretary’s decisions from review by any court or administrative agency – the ultimate fulfillment of the Bush administration’s dream of a unitary executive. Mr Paulson’s record does not inspire the confidence necessary to give him discretion over $700bn. His actions last week brought on the crisis that makes rescue necessary. On Monday he allowed Lehman Brothers to fail and refused to make government funds available to save AIG. By Tuesday he had to reverse himself and provide an $85bn loan to AIG on punitive terms. The demise of Lehman disrupted the commercial paper marke...

Here are some details of the severe repercussions should AIG fall, take this to reference on the impact of the LEH collapse: Sept 17 (Reuters) - (The following statement was released by the ratings agency) Sept 17 - Moody's Investors Service announced today that is has placed its ratings of certain credit derivative transactions listed below (the "Transactions") that have exposure to Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. ("LBHI") and certain UK Lehman companies, including Lehman Brothers International (Europe) ("LB-UK" and collectively with LBHI, the "LBHI Entities"), on watch for possible downgrade. Additionally, certain other Transactions were downgraded and left under review for further possible downgrade. Moody's explained that its rating action is based upon LBHI seeking protection under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code and LB-UK being placed into administration, a procedure governed by the Insolvency Act of 1986, on September 15, 2008...

Seems like we can avoid another scene like that in AIA Singapore again.  No rate cut was made. The Federal Reserve is readying a loan of $85B to AIG, in exchange for an 80% stake in the insurer. Barclays is buying some of Lehman's assets, where the US bankruptcy judge approves "automatic stay" status for JP Morgan to continue providing trade-clearing advances to Lehman's broker-dealer unit. WAMU is also up 16% due to talks of fresh interest from a large institution.  Thus, has all these events salvaged the turbulence in Asia, and create a positive spur of sentiment for the international markets? Let's take a quick snapshot in early Asia and US closing markets in the morning. All Ordinaries  Australia 4,843.4 8:28AM SGT  43.600 (0.91%) Nikkei 225 Japan 11,830.34 8:28AM SGT     220.62 (1.90%) KOSPI  Korea 1,425.59 8:48 AM SGT   37.84 (2.73%) S&P 500 US 1,213.59 20.89 (1.75%) DJIA 11,059.02  141.51 (1.30%) Nasdaq 100 1,724.08   18.62...

Today has also been one very interesting day for the financial markets.  With time running out for AIG's vault, it seems like all eyes are looking at the Fed to provide a bridging loan to lend the company a helping hand. Additionally, if rumours are right, WAMU may soon get off the radar screen if JPM has interest in them. Looking at the market on the macro level, we have witnessed the more than $600B in share value that got worthless or disappeared in the financial and banking sector, and historically, equity markets on average drops 26% during a recession, where now S&P 500 has already reached 23%. In addition, current dividend yield of some stocks have begun to surpass yields from Treasury Bills products. One more evidence is taken from Thomas J. Lee, JPM Chief US Equity Strategist in New York, net cash balances in margin accounts at NYSE member firms are highest in at least 50 years, citing $932B has poured into money fund since Aug 2007. So do you think this could be a pos...